Keith Mack
Donald Trump's presidency has been characterised by a complex relationship with Russia. While the United States president has threatened to impose more sanctions on Russia, he has also offered to ease penalties in talks over the war in Ukraine. This has created uncertainty among Russia's neighbours and within the EU, which has relied on US support to enforce its own sanctions against Russia.
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What You'll Learn
Sanctions evasion
It is unclear whether Donald Trump broke any laws with regards to sanctions evasion in Russia. However, there is evidence to suggest that the United States President's actions could have influenced the EU's sanctions on Russia.
In January 2025, Hungary threatened to veto the renewal of the EU's Russia penalties, citing Trump's return to the White House. In response, Trump threatened to impose more restrictions on Moscow. This incident raised hopes among the EU's Russia hawks that Trump might help their case.
In addition, the EU's push to strike an LNG deal with Trump has held up further energy sanctions on Russia, as well as fresh plans to fully quit Russian fuel.
Trump has also offered to ease penalties in talks over the war in Ukraine, despite the U.S. imposing sanctions on over 250 targets, including some based in China, to crack down on Russia's evasion of earlier U.S. sanctions.
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Trump's return to the White House
While there is no direct evidence that Donald Trump broke the law with regards to Russia, his return to the White House could have a significant impact on Europe's Russia sanctions. Trump has both threatened to bury Russia in more sanctions while also offering to ease penalties in talks over the war in Ukraine. The EU's path on Russian goods and energy will depend on Trump's decisions, and the EU is currently holding up further energy sanctions and plans to quit Russian fuel as it waits to see what Trump will do.
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The EU's Russia penalties
It is unclear which law Trump broke with Russia. However, it is known that the EU has imposed sanctions on Russia since its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. These sanctions include targeted restrictive measures (individual sanctions), economic sanctions, diplomatic measures and visa measures. The EU has also adopted sanctions against Belarus, Iran and North Korea in response to their support for Russia in the military aggression against Ukraine. The EU's Russia penalties have been impacted by Trump's return to the White House, with Hungary threatening to veto the renewal of the sanctions. However, Trump threatened to impose more restrictions on Moscow, and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged Hungary not to derail the bloc's sanctions framework.
Despite the EU's Russia penalties, there is no consensus on when the sanctions might be relaxed. Russia's neighbours are saying it is time to lay out red lines, with Latvian special envoy for sanctions, Āris Vīg, stating that "sanctions can only be eased or lifted if Russia is able to make amends and pays for the damage it has caused in Ukraine".
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The war in Ukraine
In the lead-up to the war, Russia had amassed a significant military presence along the Ukrainian border, raising concerns among Ukraine and its Western allies. Despite efforts to pursue diplomatic solutions, Russia ultimately chose to pursue a military path, citing a range of grievances and objectives, including the alleged persecution of Russian speakers in Ukraine and a desire to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.
The war has had a profound impact on Ukraine and the wider region. Ukrainian cities have been subjected to intense shelling and bombardment, resulting in extensive damage to infrastructure, homes, and civilian casualties. Millions of Ukrainians have been forced to flee their homes, seeking refuge in neighbouring countries or other parts of Ukraine. The war has also disrupted global food and energy markets, as Ukraine is a major exporter of grain and a key transit point for natural gas.
The international community has responded to the war with a range of measures. Western countries have imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia, targeting its financial system, key industries, and individuals associated with the Kremlin. There have also been efforts to provide military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, although there are ongoing debates about the appropriate level of involvement and support.
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Russian fossil fuel cash flow
The United States president is facing a series of decisions that will determine the EU’s path on Russian goods and energy. For years, parallel U.S. sanctions and access to American energy have supported EU efforts to strangle Moscow’s fossil fuel cash flow. U.S. pressure helped check sanctions evasion. American penalties stranded tankers illicitly selling Russian oil. And U.S. gas provided Europe with a reliable alternative after Russia switched off the taps in a bid to weaponize energy flows.
The EU is pushing to strike an LNG deal with Trump, which is holding up further EU energy sanctions, as well as fresh plans to fully quit Russian fuel. When the EU adopted its February wartime sanctions on Russia, officials omitted a Russian LNG ban, despite mounting pressure from capitals. The reason was the ongoing Trump talks: The EU didn’t want to propose a formal ban on Moscow’s fuel until it had a gas deal with D.C. Also paused is a long-awaited “roadmap” to ending Russian energy dependence — which officials say will focus on Moscow's gas exports, as well as oil and nuclear technology.
There’s no EU consensus on when it might relax sanctions, no matter what Trump offers the Russians. Now, Russia's neighbors are saying it's time to lay out red lines. “Sanctions can only be eased or lifted if Russia is able to make amends and pays for the damage it has caused in Ukraine,” said Latvian special envoy for sanctions, Āris Vīg.
In a classic knot of contradictions, the current administration has both threatened to bury Russia in more sanctions while also offering to ease penalties in talks over the war in Ukraine. In January, Hungary threatened to veto the regular renewal of the EU’s Russia penalties, citing Trump’s return to the White House. But Trump then unexpectedly threatened to thump Moscow with more restrictions. And U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, urging him not to derail the bloc's sanctions framework, according to two senior officials granted anonymity by POLITICO to speak freely.
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Frequently asked questions
There has been intensive public scrutiny of Trump's ties to Russia. In 2017, Trump's national security adviser, Michael Flynn, was forced to resign after press reports disclosed that Flynn had continued to serve in the White House despite a warning from the Justice Department that he was vulnerable to Russian blackmail.
The Steele dossier, also known as the Trump-Russia dossier, is a controversial political opposition research report on the 2016 presidential campaign of Donald Trump. It was published without permission in 2017 as an unfinished 35-page compilation of "unverified, and potentially unverifiable" memos that were considered by Steele to be "raw intelligence — not established facts, but a starting point for further investigation".
'Russiagate' was a scandal during and after the 2016 Presidential election, in which Lev Parnas, a Soviet-born former fixer for Rudolph Giuliani, said that Trump hated Ukraine for being the cause of his biggest problems during his first term, including his 2019 impeachment by Congress for trying to strongarm Zelenskyy into investigating the Biden family’s activities in Ukraine.
