Kara Sears
The Kentucky Derby, one of the most prestigious horse races in the United States, is steeped in tradition and history, with specific rules and regulations governing its execution. Among these rules is the question of what number is this the law in the Kentucky Derby, which refers to the post position or starting gate number assigned to each horse. The post position is a critical factor in the race, as it can significantly impact a horse's performance, with inside posts often presenting challenges due to traffic and outside posts offering more freedom but requiring additional ground to be covered. Understanding the significance of post positions and the laws surrounding them is essential for both bettors and racing enthusiasts, as it provides valuable insights into the dynamics of this iconic event.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Horse Name | Tis the Law |
| Kentucky Derby Year | 2020 |
| Post Position (Saddle Cloth Number) | 8 |
| Finish Position | 7th |
| Jockey | Manuel Franco |
| Trainer | William I. Mott |
| Owner | Sackatoga Stable |
| Earnings | $31,800 (from Kentucky Derby) |
| Career Earnings | Over $1.5 million |
| Notable Wins | 2020 Belmont Stakes, 2020 Travers Stakes |
| Breeding | Constitution - She's a Hottie (by Not For Love) |
| Foaled | March 29, 2017 |
| Color | Bay |
| Sex | Colt |
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What You'll Learn
Historical Significance of This Number
The number 15 holds a peculiar place in the annals of the Kentucky Derby, a race where superstition and strategy often intertwine. Historically, post position 15 has been both a blessing and a curse, offering a unique vantage point in the starting gate but also presenting challenges due to its outer position. This number has seen its share of triumphs and setbacks, making it a fascinating subject for racing enthusiasts and historians alike.
Analyzing the data, horses starting from post position 15 have a win rate that defies easy categorization. While it is not the most favored position, it has produced notable victories, such as in 1994 when *Go for Gin* broke from the 15th gate to claim the Derby crown. This victory underscores the idea that success in the Derby is not solely determined by post position but by a combination of factors, including the horse’s speed, jockey’s skill, and race-day conditions. However, the historical record also shows that horses in this position often face longer odds, as the outer starting gate can force them to cover more ground or navigate heavier traffic.
Instructively, trainers and jockeys must consider the tactical implications of drawing post position 15. One strategy involves breaking quickly to secure a favorable early position, minimizing the distance lost due to the outer gate. Another approach is to conserve energy early in the race, relying on a strong closing kick to make up ground in the final furlongs. For bettors, understanding these dynamics can inform wagering decisions, as horses in this position often offer higher payouts when they succeed.
Comparatively, post position 15 stands in stark contrast to more coveted starting gates, such as the middle positions (5–10), which historically yield higher win percentages. Yet, it shares similarities with other outer positions, like 19 or 20, in terms of the challenges posed. What sets 15 apart is its occasional ability to defy the odds, serving as a reminder that in the Derby, every post has its own story and potential for greatness.
Descriptively, the experience of a horse breaking from post position 15 is one of both isolation and opportunity. Positioned far from the rail, the horse and jockey have a clearer view of the field, allowing them to assess the race’s early pace without the immediate pressure of competitors. However, this advantage comes with the risk of being caught wide, a scenario that can drain a horse’s energy reserves. The historical significance of this number lies not just in its statistical record but in the strategic dilemmas it presents, making it a microcosm of the Derby’s complexity and unpredictability.
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Famous Winners Wearing the Number
The Kentucky Derby, often referred to as "The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports," assigns post positions to each horse, with numbers ranging from 1 to 20. While no specific number is inherently "lucky," certain winners have made their post positions memorable. Analyzing these instances reveals patterns and exceptions that challenge the notion of numerical superstition. For example, post position 5 has produced the most winners, with 10 horses crossing the finish line first, including the legendary Secretariat in 1973. This statistical prominence suggests that starting from this position may offer strategic advantages, such as a balanced view of the field and reduced risk of traffic.
Instructive insights emerge when examining how post positions influence race strategy. Horses in the inside posts (1–5) often face the challenge of avoiding early congestion, while those on the outside (15–20) must overcome longer distances. However, exceptions abound. American Pharoad, the 2015 Triple Crown winner, broke from post position 18, defying the odds associated with outside starts. This example underscores the importance of a horse’s running style and jockey’s skill in mitigating positional drawbacks. For bettors and enthusiasts, understanding these dynamics can refine handicapping strategies, emphasizing factors like speed, stamina, and tactical adaptability over mere post numbers.
Persuasively, the narrative of post position 17 stands out as a testament to resilience. Despite being statistically one of the least favorable starting spots, it produced the 2018 winner, Justify. His victory, coupled with his eventual Triple Crown triumph, challenges the notion that certain numbers are cursed. This case study encourages a shift in perspective: rather than viewing post positions as deterministic, they should be seen as variables within a broader context of race conditions, horse fitness, and jockey expertise. Bettors who focus on these fundamentals rather than numerical superstitions may find greater success.
Comparatively, the contrast between post positions 1 and 20 highlights the extremes of Derby starting gates. While post 1 has yielded 12 winners, post 20 remains winless, earning its reputation as the "cursed" position. This disparity raises questions about track design and race dynamics. For instance, the tight turn at Churchill Downs may disadvantage horses starting from the far outside. Yet, even this trend has exceptions, as horses like 2019’s Country House (post 20) have placed highly. Such comparisons remind observers that while historical data provides guidance, each race is a unique event shaped by countless variables.
Descriptively, the image of a horse bursting from the gate, its number emblazoned on the saddle cloth, is iconic. Post position 10, for instance, has produced winners like 2016’s Nyquist, whose mid-pack start allowed him to conserve energy before making a decisive move. This visual and strategic interplay underscores the artistry of the Derby. For spectators, recognizing these numbers and their associated stories adds depth to the experience, transforming each race into a tapestry of history, strategy, and athleticism. Practical tip: when attending or watching the Derby, note the post positions of top contenders to better appreciate the tactical choices that unfold during the race.
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Superstitions and Myths Surrounding It
The Kentucky Derby, a pinnacle of horse racing, is steeped in tradition and lore, with superstitions and myths surrounding the number associated with "Tis the Law." While the phrase itself doesn’t directly correlate to a specific number in the race, the number 1 has become a focal point of intrigue due to its historical significance and recurring patterns. Superstitions often arise from anomalies or coincidences, and in the Derby, the post position 1 has been both celebrated and feared. Horses starting from this position have won the race 12 times, a record that fuels belief in its favorability. Yet, it’s also the most frequently drawn post, leading some to argue its success is statistically expected rather than mystical.
Analyzing the data reveals a curious trend: since 2000, only two horses starting from post 1 have won the Derby. This has given rise to the myth that the rail position is cursed in modern times, with trainers and jockeys often expressing reluctance to draw it. The tight turn at the start and the risk of being boxed in by other horses are cited as practical concerns, but superstition amplifies these fears. For instance, in 2021, “Known Agenda” started from post 1 and finished ninth, further cementing the belief in the modern-day jinx. Bettors and fans alike now scrutinize the post position draw, with some avoiding wagers on rail starters entirely.
Instructively, if you’re participating in Derby festivities, consider these practical tips to navigate the superstitions. First, research historical performances from post 1 to balance myth with reality. Second, observe how trainers and jockeys react to the draw; their body language and statements can offer insight into prevailing beliefs. Finally, if you’re betting, weigh the odds against the superstition—sometimes, the rail position offers better value due to public skepticism. For example, in 2016, “Nyquist” defied the modern curse, winning from post 13, proving that trends aren’t destiny.
Comparatively, the superstitions surrounding post 1 in the Kentucky Derby mirror those in other sports, where certain numbers or positions are avoided due to perceived bad luck. In Formula One, no driver chooses the number 13, while in soccer, the number 9 is often associated with goal-scoring prowess. The Derby’s rail position, however, stands out due to its dual nature—both historically successful and recently maligned. This duality makes it a fascinating case study in how myths evolve over time, influenced by both statistical anomalies and human psychology.
Descriptively, the atmosphere on draw day is electric, with tension palpable as post positions are assigned. Trainers cross their fingers, fans whisper predictions, and the media speculates wildly. The number 1 post, in particular, draws gasps and murmurs, its reputation preceding it. For those deeply entrenched in Derby culture, the rail position is more than a starting point—it’s a narrative thread woven into the race’s identity. Whether viewed as a blessing or a curse, it remains a central character in the Derby’s ongoing story, a testament to the enduring power of superstition in sport.
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How the Number is Assigned
The Kentucky Derby post position draw is a pivotal moment in the lead-up to the race, determining where each horse will start on the track. This process is not arbitrary; it’s a carefully orchestrated event that balances tradition, strategy, and fairness. The number assigned to each horse—its post position—can significantly influence its chances of winning, making the draw a high-stakes affair for trainers, jockeys, and bettors alike.
Step 1: Qualification and Entry
Before numbers are assigned, horses must qualify for the Kentucky Derby by earning points in designated prep races. Once eligibility is confirmed, entries are finalized, typically two days before the race. This ensures only the top 20 horses, plus up to four alternates, are included in the draw. The qualification process is rigorous, with races like the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby serving as key point-earning opportunities.
Step 2: The Post Position Draw
The actual assignment of numbers occurs during a public draw event, often broadcast live. Each horse’s name is placed into a lottery-style machine, and numbers from 1 to 20 (or fewer, if there are scratches) are randomly selected. This randomness ensures fairness, though trainers and jockeys often have preferences based on their horse’s running style. For instance, a horse that likes to lead from the front might prefer an inside post (e.g., 1–5), while a closer might benefit from an outside post (e.g., 15–20) to avoid traffic.
Step 3: Strategic Considerations
While the draw is random, its impact is anything but. Historical data shows that horses starting from post positions 5 to 10 have the highest win rates, likely due to the balance between avoiding early congestion and having a clear path to the first turn. Conversely, the rail (post 1) and far outside (post 20) are often considered less advantageous. Trainers and jockeys study these trends, but adaptability is key—a skilled jockey can overcome a poor post position with smart race tactics.
Cautions and Takeaways
While the post position is important, it’s just one factor in a complex race. Bettors should consider it alongside other variables like a horse’s form, jockey experience, and track conditions. For participants, the draw is a moment of truth, but it’s not a guarantee of success or failure. As the saying goes, “The race isn’t won in the post position draw, but it can certainly be lost there.” Understanding how numbers are assigned and their historical implications can provide a strategic edge, whether you’re a participant or a spectator.
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Impact on Betting and Odds
The post position, or the starting gate number, assigned to a horse in the Kentucky Derby can significantly influence betting patterns and odds. Historically, certain positions have been deemed more advantageous due to factors like track geometry and early race dynamics. For instance, horses in post positions 5 through 10 have statistically performed better, winning over 50% of the races since 1900. This trend is not lost on bettors, who often adjust their wagers based on these numbers, causing odds to shift accordingly.
Analyzing the impact of post positions reveals a clear pattern in betting behavior. Horses in traditionally favorable positions, such as 5 or 10, frequently see their odds shorten as bettors flock to them. Conversely, horses in less desirable positions, like 1 or 20, often face longer odds due to perceived disadvantages. For example, the far outside posts require horses to cover more ground, while inside posts risk getting trapped in traffic. Savvy bettors use this knowledge to identify value bets, balancing risk and reward based on post position trends.
To maximize betting efficiency, consider a two-step approach. First, study historical data to identify which post positions have yielded the most winners in recent decades. Second, cross-reference this information with the current field’s strengths and weaknesses. For instance, a horse with exceptional speed may overcome an outside post, while a closer might struggle in an inside position. Tools like speed figures, jockey-trainer combinations, and past performance charts can further refine your analysis.
A cautionary note: while post positions are a critical factor, they should not be the sole determinant of your bet. Other variables, such as track conditions, weather, and horse form, play equally important roles. Overemphasis on post position can lead to overlooking a strong contender in a less-favored spot. For example, in 2018, Justify broke the "Curse of Apollo" by winning from post 7, despite being the favorite, proving that exceptional horses can transcend positional drawbacks.
In conclusion, understanding the impact of post positions on betting and odds in the Kentucky Derby is essential for informed wagering. By combining historical trends with current race dynamics, bettors can make more strategic decisions. However, balance this knowledge with a holistic view of the race to avoid costly oversights. Whether you're a novice or a seasoned bettor, leveraging post position insights can enhance your chances of success on Derby Day.
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Frequently asked questions
"Tis the Law" did not run in the Kentucky Derby, as there is no record of a horse with that name participating in the race.
No, "Tis the Law" is not associated with any Kentucky Derby lineup or results.
There is no known significance of "Tis the Law" in horse racing, as it does not appear to be a notable horse or term in the sport.
It’s possible "Tis the Law" is a misspelling or confusion with another horse, such as "Tiz the Law," who won the 2020 Belmont Stakes but did not run in the Kentucky Derby that year.
